Upcoming Event: Oden Institute Seminar

Behavioral Game-Theory Models of Vaccination Decision-Making

Tamer Oraby, Associate Professor, University of Texas Rio Grande Valley

Abstract

Vaccination uptake is affected not only by epidemiological risks but also by social and personal factors like social norms and cognitive biases. In this talk, I will explore the development of disease–behavior models that merge the susceptible-infected-recovered framework for childhood diseases with behavioral game theory. These models evolve from traditional imitation dynamics of rational agents to include bounded rationality with noisy utilities, incorporating prospect theory and reinforcement learning elements. They establish a new disease–behavior–cognition framework with unique equilibria and stability conditions. Furthermore, adding transmission and perception noise leads to stochastic dynamics that echo bounded rationality, uncovering new stability regimes and disease extinction conditions. The work highlights the vital role of social and educational strategies to boost and maintain vaccination acceptance.

Biography

Dr. Tamer Oraby is an Associate Professor of Statistics at UTRGV, where he has taught 25 different courses and mentored over 30 undergraduate and graduate students since joining in 2014. He holds a PhD in Mathematical Sciences from the University of Cincinnati and completed postdoctoral fellowships at the University of Ottawa and the University of Guelph. His research in statistical and mathematical modeling spans epidemiology, environment, ecology, and climate-health systems, integrating behavioral dynamics, stochastic processes, and data-driven computational modeling. His peer-reviewed work appears in The Lancet, Scientific Reports, and PLOS ONE. A recipient of UTRGV’s 2019 Student Mentorship Excellence Award, Dr. Oraby has led NSF- and MAA-funded research programs and delivered invited talks at the Lenora Lecture at Oberlin College and the NSF-supported Probability Symposium at the University of Cincinnati.